Simulating Agile Strategies
In this talk I will introduce a method of simulation in economics and biology called the Lazy Stopping Model (or ‘LSM’) which I am developing as part of research with King’s and Imperial Colleges, London. I will explain how the model works, the ideas behind it and what it can be used for. One of the main applications of the LSM will be to simulate different strategies for software development or capital projects, so that it can be used either as an educational tool, or as a way to test a set of proposed project strategies against different scenarios. Donald Rumsfeld famously said that there are ‘knowns’, ‘known unknowns’ and ‘unknown unknowns’. The LSM is designed specifically to help decision-makers to model ‘unknown unknowns’. In a given scenario an ‘unknown unknown’ is represented in the model as a ‘trap’ that the unassuming project agents can fall into. Different agile strategies are different hypotheses about where the ‘traps’ may lie ahead and how they can best be dealt with.